Research Note: COVID-19 Is Not an Independent Cause of Death.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had overwhelming global impacts with deleterious social, economic, and health consequences. To assess the COVID-19 death toll, researchers have estimated declines in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0). When data are available only for COVID-19 deaths, but not for deaths from other causes, the risks of dying from COVID-19 are typically assumed to be independent of those from other causes. In this research note, we explore the soundness of this assumption using data from the United States and Brazil, the countries with the largest number of reported COVID-19 deaths. We use three methods: one estimates the difference between 2019 and 2020 life tables and therefore does not require the assumption of independence, and the other two assume independence to simulate scenarios in which COVID-19 mortality is added to 2019 death rates or is eliminated from 2020 rates. Our results reveal that COVID-19 is not independent of other causes of death. The assumption of independence can lead to either an overestimate (Brazil) or an underestimate (United States) of the decline in e0, depending on how the number of other reported causes of death changed in 2020.

Risk of death following COVID-19 vaccination or positive SARS-CoV-2 test in young people in England.

Several studies have reported associations between COVID-19 vaccination and risk of cardiac diseases, especially in young people; the impact on mortality, however, remains unclear. We use national, linked electronic health data in England to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and positive SARS-CoV-2 tests on the risk of cardiac and all-cause mortality in young people (12 to 29 years) using a self-controlled case series design. Here, we show there is no significant increase in cardiac or all-cause mortality in the 12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccination compared to more than 12 weeks after any dose. However, we find an increase in cardiac death in women after a first dose of non mRNA vaccines. A positive SARS-CoV-2 test is associated with increased cardiac and all-cause mortality among people vaccinated or unvaccinated at time of testing.

Hypertension in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

In recent decades low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been witnessing a significant shift toward raised blood pressure; yet in LMICs, only 1 in 3 are aware of their hypertension status, and ≈8% have their blood pressure controlled. This rising burden widens the inequality gap, contributes to massive economic hardships of patients and carers, and increases costs to the health system, facing challenges such as low physician-to-patient ratios and lack of access to medicines. Established risk factors include unhealthy diet (high salt and low fruit and vegetable intake), physical inactivity, tobacco and alcohol use, and obesity. Emerging risk factors include pollution (air, water, noise, and light), urbanization, and a loss of green space. Risk factors that require further in-depth research are low birth weight and social and commercial determinants of health. Global actions include the HEARTS technical package and the push for universal health care. Promising research efforts highlight that successful interventions are feasible in LMICs. These include creation of health-promoting environments by introducing salt-reduction policies and sugar and alcohol tax; implementing cost-effective screening and simplified treatment protocols to mitigate treatment inertia; pooled procurement of low-cost single-pill combination therapy to improve adherence; increasing access to telehealth and mHealth (mobile health); and training health care staff, including community health workers, to strengthen team-based care. As the blood pressure trajectory continues creeping upward in LMICs, contextual research on effective, safe, and cost-effective interventions is urgent. New emergent risk factors require novel solutions. Lowering blood pressure in LMICs requires urgent global political and scientific priority and action.

ECG pathology and its association with death in critically ill COVID-19 patients, a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the prevalence of ECG abnormalities and their association with mortality, organ dysfunction and cardiac biomarkers in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: This cohort study included patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU of a tertiary hospital in Sweden. ECG, clinical data and laboratory findings during ICU stay were extracted from medical records and ECGs obtained near ICU admission were reviewed by two independent physicians. RESULTS: Eighty patients had an acceptable ECG near ICU-admission. In the entire cohort 30-day mortality was 28%. Compared to patients with normal ECG, among whom 30-day mortality was 16%, patients with ECG fulfilling criteria for prior myocardial infarction had higher mortality, 63%, odds ratio (OR) 9.61 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02-55.6) adjusted for Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 and patients with ST-T abnormalities had 50% mortality and OR 6.05 (95% CI 1.82-21.3) in univariable analysis. Both prior myocardial infarction pattern and ST-T pathology were associated with need for vasoactive treatment and higher peak plasma levels of troponin-I, NT-pro-BNP (N-terminal pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide), and lactate during ICU stay compared to patients with normal ECG. CONCLUSION: ECG with prior myocardial infarction pattern or acute ST-T pathology at ICU admission is associated with death, need for vasoactive treatment and higher levels of biomarkers of cardiac damage and strain in severely ill COVID-19 patients, and should alert clinicians to a poor prognosis.

Cardiac involvement in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and its incremental value in outcomes prediction.

Recent reports linked acute COVID-19 infection in hospitalized patients to cardiac abnormalities. Studies have not evaluated presence of abnormal cardiac structure and function before scanning in setting of COVD-19 infection. We sought to examine cardiac abnormalities in consecutive group of patients with acute COVID-19 infection according to the presence or absence of cardiac disease based on review of health records and cardiovascular imaging studies. We looked at independent contribution of imaging findings to clinical outcomes. After excluding patients with previous left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (global and/or segmental), 724 patients were included. Machine learning identified predictors of in-hospital mortality and in-hospital mortality + ECMO. In patients without previous cardiovascular disease, LV EF < 50% occurred in 3.4%, abnormal LV global longitudinal strain (< 16%) in 24%, and diastolic dysfunction in 20%. Right ventricular systolic dysfunction (RV free wall strain < 20%) was noted in 18%. Moderate and large pericardial effusion were uncommon with an incidence of 0.4% for each category. Forty patients received ECMO support, and 79 died (10.9%). A stepwise increase in AUC was observed with addition of vital signs and laboratory measurements to baseline clinical characteristics, and a further significant increase (AUC 0.91) was observed when echocardiographic measurements were added. The performance of an optimized prediction model was similar to the model including baseline characteristics + vital signs and laboratory results + echocardiographic measurements.

Clinical outcomes in patients infected with different SARS-CoV-2 variants at one hospital during three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic in Marseille, France.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the demographics, clinical characteristics and severity of patients infected with nine different SARS-CoV-2 variants, during three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic in Marseille. METHODS: A single centre retrospective cohort study was conducted in 1760 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 of Nextstrain clades 20A, 20B, and 20C (first phase, February-May 2020), Pangolin lineages B.1.177 (we named Marseille-2) and B.1.160 (Marseille-4) variants (second phase, June-December 2020), and B.1.1.7 (alpha), B.1.351 (beta), P.1 (gamma) and A.27 (Marseille-501) variants (third phase, January 2021-today). Outcomes were the occurrence of clinical failures, including hospitalisation, transfer to the intensive-care unit, and death. RESULTS: During each phase, no major differences were observed with regards to age and gender distribution, the prevalence of chronic diseases, and clinical symptoms between variants circulating in a given phase. The B.1.177 and B.1.160 variants were associated with more severe outcomes. Infections occurring during the second phase were associated with a higher rate of death as compared to infections during the first and third phases. Patients in the second phase were more likely to be hospitalised than those in the third phase. Patients infected during the third phase were more frequently obese than others. CONCLUSION: A large cohort study is recommended to evaluate the transmissibility and to better characterise the clinical severity of emerging variants.

Efficacy and safety of direct-acting oral anticoagulants compared to vitamin K antagonists in COVID-19 outpatients with cardiometabolic diseases.

BACKGROUND: It remains uncertain if prior use of oral anticoagulants (OACs) in COVID-19 outpatients with multimorbidity impacts prognosis, especially if cardiometabolic diseases are present. Clinical outcomes 30-days after COVID-19 diagnosis were compared between outpatients with cardiometabolic disease receiving vitamin K antagonist (VKA) or direct-acting OAC (DOAC) therapy at time of COVID-19 diagnosis. METHODS: A study was conducted using TriNetX, a global federated health research network. Adult outpatients with cardiometabolic disease (i.e. diabetes mellitus and any disease of the circulatory system) treated with VKAs or DOACs at time of COVID-19 diagnosis between 20-Jan-2020 and 15-Feb-2021 were included. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance cohorts receiving VKAs and DOACs. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission/mechanical ventilation (MV) necessity, intracranial haemorrhage (ICH)/gastrointestinal bleeding, and the composite of any arterial or venous thrombotic event(s) at 30-days after COVID-19 diagnosis. RESULTS: 2275 patients were included. After PSM, 1270 patients remained in the study (635 on VKAs; 635 on DOACs). VKA-treated patients had similar risks and 30-day event-free survival than patients on DOACs regarding all-cause mortality, ICU admission/MV necessity, and ICH/gastrointestinal bleeding. The risk of any arterial or venous thrombotic event was 43% higher in the VKA cohort (hazard ratio 1.43, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.98; Log-Rank test p = 0.029). CONCLUSION: In COVID-19 outpatients with cardiometabolic diseases, prior use of DOAC therapy compared to VKA therapy at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis demonstrated lower risk of arterial or venous thrombotic outcomes, without increasing the risk of bleeding.

Electrocardiographic findings at presentation and clinical outcome in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

AIMS: The main severe complications of SARS-CoV-2 infection are pneumonia and respiratory distress syndrome. Recent studies, however, reported that cardiac injury, as assessed by troponin levels, is associated with a worse outcome in these patients. No study hitherto assessed whether the simple standard electrocardiogram (ECG) may be helpful for risk stratification in these patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 324 consecutive patients admitted to our Emergency Department with a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Standard 12-lead ECG recorded on admission was assessed for cardiac rhythm and rate, atrioventricular and intraventricular conduction, abnormal Q/QS wave, ST segment and T wave changes, corrected QT interval, and tachyarrhythmias. At a mean follow-up of 31 ± 11 days, 44 deaths occurred (13.6%). Most ECG variables were significantly associated with mortality, including atrial fibrillation (P = 0.002), increasing heart rate (P = 0.002), presence of left bundle branch block (LBBB; P < 0.001), QRS duration (P <0 .001), a QRS duration of ≥110 ms (P < 0.001), ST segment depression (P < 0.001), abnormal Q/QS wave (P = 0.034), premature ventricular complexes (PVCs; P = 0.051), and presence of any ECG abnormality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.58; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.40-8.76; P < 0.001]. At multivariable analysis, QRS duration (P = 0.002), QRS duration ≥110 ms (P = 0.03), LBBB (P = 0.014) and presence of any ECG abnormality (P = 0.04) maintained a significant independent association with mortality. CONCLUSION: Our data show that standard ECG can be helpful for an initial risk stratification of patients admitted for SARS-CoV-2 infectious disease.

Cardiac manifestations of COVID-19.

COVID-19 is a novel viral infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) beta-coronavirus. Epidemiological status changes dynamically as the pandemy is far from ending. Several complications of presented virus may be similar to those observed in other viral infections. Despite lacking data, the heart involvement may be comparable to cardiac complications observed previously in those with SARS as well as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). In COVID-19 we observe elevated levels of cardiac biomarkers, such as natriuretic peptides, troponins, myoglobin, C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and ferritin, which is likely the result of myocardial injury. The possible mechanisms of cardiovascular injury include direct toxicity through the viral invasion of cardiac myocytes, ACE-2 receptor-mediated CV (cardiac and endothelial) injury, microvascular dysfunction and thrombosis and cytokine release syndrome (mainly IL-6 mediated). Cardiac manifestations of COVID-19 are focal or global myocardial inflammation, necrosis, ventricular dysfunction, heart failure and arrhythmia.

Cardiac pathology in COVID-19: a single center autopsy experience.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is commonly associated with myocardial injury and heart failure. The pathophysiology behind this phenomenon remains unclear, with many diverse and multifaceted hypotheses. To contribute to this understanding, we describe the underlying cardiac findings in fifty patients who died with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: Included were autopsies performed on patients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain reaction test from the index hospitalization. In the case of out-of-hospital death, patients were included if post-mortem testing was positive. Complete autopsies were performed according to a COVID-19 safety protocol, and all patients underwent both macroscopic and microscopic examination. If available, laboratory findings and echocardiograms were reported. RESULTS: The median age of the decedents was 63.5 years. The most common comorbidities included hypertension (90.0%), diabetes (56.0%) and obesity (50.0%). Lymphocytic inflammatory infiltrates in the heart were present in eight (16.0%) patients, with focal myocarditis present in two (4.0%) patients. Acute myocardial ischemia was observed in eight (16.0%) patients. The most common findings were myocardial fibrosis (80.0%), hypertrophy (72.0%), and microthrombi (66.0%). The most common causes of death were COVID-19 pneumonia in 18 (36.0%), COVID-19 pneumonia with bacterial superinfection in 12 (24.0%), and COVID-19 pneumonia with pulmonary embolism in 10 (20.0%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular comorbidities were prevalent, and pathologic changes associated with hypertensive and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were the most common findings. Despite markedly elevated inflammatory markers and cardiac enzymes, few patients exhibited inflammatory infiltrates or necrosis within cardiac myocytes. A unifying pathophysiologic mechanism behind myocardial injury in COVID-19 remains elusive, and additional autopsy studies are needed.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Heart and Cerebrovascular Disease Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular deaths increased during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, it is unclear whether diverse racial/ethnic populations have experienced a disproportionate rise in heart disease and cerebrovascular disease deaths. METHODS: We used the National Center for Health Statistics to identify heart disease and cerebrovascular disease deaths for non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, and Hispanic individuals from March to August 2020 (pandemic period), as well as for the corresponding months in 2019 (historical control). We determined the age- and sex-standardized deaths per million by race/ethnicity for each year. We then fit a modified Poisson model with robust SEs to compare change in deaths by race/ethnicity for each condition in 2020 versus 2019. RESULTS: There were a total of 339 076 heart disease and 76 767 cerebrovascular disease deaths from March through August 2020, compared with 321 218 and 72 190 deaths during the same months in 2019. Heart disease deaths increased during the pandemic in 2020, compared with the corresponding period in 2019, for non-Hispanic White (age-sex standardized deaths per million, 1234.2 versus 1208.7; risk ratio for death [RR], 1.02 [95% CI, 1.02-1.03]), non-Hispanic Black (1783.7 versus 1503.8; RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.17-1.20]), non-Hispanic Asian (685.7 versus 577.4; RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.15-1.22]), and Hispanic (968.5 versus 820.4; RR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.16-1.20]) populations. Cerebrovascular disease deaths also increased for non-Hispanic White (268.7 versus 258.2; RR, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.03-1.05]), non-Hispanic Black (430.7 versus 379.7; RR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.10-1.17]), non-Hispanic Asian (236.5 versus 207.4; RR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.09-1.21]), and Hispanic (264.4 versus 235.9; RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.08-1.16]) populations. For both heart disease and cerebrovascular disease deaths, Black, Asian, and Hispanic populations experienced a larger relative increase in deaths than the non-Hispanic White population (interaction term, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations experienced a disproportionate rise in deaths caused by heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, suggesting that these groups have been most impacted by the indirect effects of the pandemic. Public health and policy strategies are needed to mitigate the short- and long-term adverse effects of the pandemic on the cardiovascular health of diverse populations.

Plasma ACE2 predicts outcome of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients.

AIMS: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) binds to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) enabling entrance of the virus into cells and causing the infection termed coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we investigate associations between plasma ACE2 and outcome of COVID-19. METHODS AND RESULTS: This analysis used data from a large longitudinal study of 306 COVID-19 positive patients and 78 COVID-19 negative patients (MGH Emergency Department COVID-19 Cohort). Comprehensive clinical data were collected on this cohort, including 28-day outcomes. The samples were run on the Olink® Explore 1536 platform which includes measurement of the ACE2 protein. High admission plasma ACE2 in COVID-19 patients was associated with increased maximal illness severity within 28 days with OR = 1.8, 95%-CI: 1.4-2.3 (P < 0.0001). Plasma ACE2 was significantly higher in COVID-19 patients with hypertension compared with patients without hypertension (P = 0.0045). Circulating ACE2 was also significantly higher in COVID-19 patients with pre-existing heart conditions and kidney disease compared with patients without these pre-existing conditions (P = 0.0363 and P = 0.0303, respectively). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that measuring plasma ACE2 is potentially valuable in predicting COVID-19 outcomes. Further, ACE2 could be a link between COVID-19 illness severity and its established risk factors hypertension, pre-existing heart disease and pre-existing kidney disease.

Echocardiographic Correlates of In-Hospital Death in Patients with Acute COVID-19 Infection: The World Alliance Societies of Echocardiography (WASE-COVID) Study.

BACKGROUND: The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 virus, which has led to the global coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is known to adversely affect the cardiovascular system through multiple mechanisms. In this international, multicenter study conducted by the World Alliance Societies of Echocardiography, we aim to determine the clinical and echocardiographic phenotype of acute cardiac disease in COVID-19 patients, to explore phenotypic differences in different geographic regions across the world, and to identify parameters associated with in-hospital mortality. METHODS: We studied 870 patients with acute COVID-19 infection from 13 medical centers in four world regions (Asia, Europe, United States, Latin America) who had undergone transthoracic echocardiograms. Clinical and laboratory data were collected, including patient outcomes. Anonymized echocardiograms were analyzed with automated, machine learning-derived algorithms to calculate left ventricular (LV) volumes, ejection fraction, and LV longitudinal strain (LS). Right-sided echocardiographic parameters that were measured included right ventricular (RV) LS, RV free-wall strain (FWS), and RV basal diameter. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify clinical and echocardiographic parameters associated with in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Significant regional differences were noted in terms of patient comorbidities, severity of illness, clinical biomarkers, and LV and RV echocardiographic metrics. Overall in-hospital mortality was 21.6%. Parameters associated with mortality in a multivariate analysis were age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.12 [1.05, 1.22], P = .003), previous lung disease (OR = 7.32 [1.56, 42.2], P = .015), LVLS (OR = 1.18 [1.05, 1.36], P = .012), lactic dehydrogenase (OR = 6.17 [1.74, 28.7], P = .009), and RVFWS (OR = 1.14 [1.04, 1.26], P = .007). CONCLUSIONS: Left ventricular dysfunction is noted in approximately 20% and RV dysfunction in approximately 30% of patients with acute COVID-19 illness and portend a poor prognosis. Age at presentation, previous lung disease, lactic dehydrogenase, LVLS, and RVFWS were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. Regional differences in cardiac phenotype highlight the significant differences in patient acuity as well as echocardiographic utilization in different parts of the world.

The effect of cardiovascular disease and acute cardiac injury on fatal COVID-19: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: With the continuance of the global COVID-19 pandemic, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cardiac injury have been suggested to be risk factors for severe COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: The aim is to evaluate the mortality risks associated with CVD and cardiac injury among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, especially in subgroups of populations in different countries. METHODS: A comprehensive systematic literature search was performed using 9 databases from November 1, 2019 to November 9, 2020. Meta-analyses were performed for CVD and cardiac injury between non-survivors and survivors of COVID-19. RESULTS: Although the prevalence of CVD in different populations was different, hospitalized COVID-19 patients with CVD were at a higher risk of fatal outcomes (OR = 2.72; 95% CI 2.35-3.16) than those without CVD. Separate meta-analyses of populations in four different countries also reached a similar conclusion that CVD was associated with an increase in mortality. Cardiac injury was common among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Patients with cardiac injury had a significantly higher mortality risk than those without cardiac injury (OR = 13.25; 95% CI: 8.56-20.52). CONCLUSIONS: Patients' CVD history and biomarkers of cardiac injury should be taken into consideration during the hospital stay and incorporated into the routine laboratory panel for COVID-19.

Impact of diabetes in patients waiting for invasive cardiac procedures during COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During COVID-19 pandemic, elective invasive cardiac procedures (ICP) have been frequently cancelled or postponed. Consequences may be more evident in patients with diabetes. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to identify the peculiarities of patients with DM among those in whom ICP were cancelled or postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to identify subgroups in which the influence of DM has higher impact on the clinical outcome. METHODS: We included 2,158 patients in whom an elective ICP was cancelled or postponed during COVID-19 pandemic in 37 hospitals in Spain. Among them, 700 (32.4%) were diabetics. Patients with and without diabetes were compared. RESULTS: Patients with diabetes were older and had a higher prevalence of other cardiovascular risk factors, previous cardiovascular history and co-morbidities. Diabetics had a higher mortality (3.0% vs. 1.0%; p = 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (1.9% vs. 0.4%; p = 0.001). Differences were especially important in patients with valvular heart disease (mortality 6.9% vs 1.7% [p < 0.001] and cardiovascular mortality 4.9% vs 0.9% [p = 0.002] in patients with and without diabetes, respectively). In the multivariable analysis, diabetes remained as an independent risk factor both for overall and cardiovascular mortality. No significant interaction was found with other clinical variables. CONCLUSION: Among patients in whom an elective invasive cardiac procedure is cancelled or postponed during COVID-19 pandemic, mortality and cardiovascular mortality is higher in patients with diabetes, irrespectively on other clinical conditions. These procedures should not be cancelled in patients with diabetes.